The Economie And the inflation Are the dominant issues after three weeks of midterm congressional electionsWhich poses a challenge to the Democrats’ chances of maintaining control of Congress, according to a series of new opinion polls released in the past few days.
Prevailing impressions of the economy as bad and worsening, accompanied by dissatisfaction President Joe Biden and the way things are going in the country, suggests that the general political mood of the nation – which was somewhat more favorable to Democrats who follow Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade Possibly leaning more in favor of the Republicans.
a CBS News/YouGov Poll Sunday found that 65% of voters feel the economy is getting worse and 68% say the Biden administration could do more to combat inflation. in New York Times/Siena College Poll Released on Monday, 64% of potential voters said the US is headed in the wrong direction, with the economy (26%) and inflation (18%) the most important problem facing the country today, with all other problems at 8% or less. And 70% of registered voters say they are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States today, according to one AP-NORC Scan Outside the two, including the majority across party lines.
The Times/Siena poll found Republican congressional candidates favoring 49% versus 45% for Democrats among likely voters, a division that falls within the poll’s margin of sampling error. In the CBS/YouGov poll, likely voter preferences exceed 47% for Republicans to 45% for Democrats, also within the poll’s margin of error.
The new CNN polling average found an even split in the general poll, with both Democratic and Republican candidates receiving 46% support among voters in the new polls, compared to a narrow 3-point slope toward Democrats on average. Recently in late September.
Three of the five surveys listed on average report results among potential voters. fourth, From Fox NewsWhich showed Democrats 44% versus 41% Republicans among registered voters, found that 47% Republicans versus 46% Democrats are split among those who say they feel confident they will vote this fall.
A close split in general suffrage preferences often points to Republican gains in the House of Representatives. In general, voter preferences for partisan candidates do not translate directly into a similar result in the House seat share. In some recent elections, Republicans won a larger share of seats than their share of the nationwide popular vote, in part because Repartition of circles.
Recent opinion polls suggest that a broad focus on the economy has stalled the democratic momentum gained after the Dobbs Supreme Court ruling against Jackson Women’s Health ended federal protections for abortion rights. a CNN poll published last week 9 out of 10 registered voters found the economy important to their vote, while 72% considered abortion important. Those registered voters who view the economy as critical to their vote are falling sharply toward Republicans in their district, 53% versus 38%.
The same poll showed that 48% of potential voters supported the Republican candidate across the competing congressional districts that would ultimately decide control of the House of Representatives, while 43% in that group supported the Democratic candidate. Voters registered in those districts were more likely than those across the country to consider economic concerns critical to their decision to vote, and these voters dissociate more sharply toward the Republican candidate (56% to 30%).
Over the course of this year, momentum in the House race has shifted from a clear GOP advantage to an environment where Democrats It seemed more competitiveand now appears to be leaning Back to the Republicans. The nationwide competition in the current poll average is weaker for Republicans than what polls had suggested prior to Dobbs’ decision. Early this year, consistently high-quality polls found the Republican Party significantly ahead of the Democrats in a general ballot question. Democrats narrowed that gap sharply over the summer, culminating in a narrow numerical advantage on average and in most polls in the general ballot. But only one poll that met CNN’s criteria for reporting during that time found Democrats to have a significant lead among voters. None of the polls included in the current rate show a clear leader between the two parties in the race for control of the House of Representatives.
A CNN poll of opinion polls is the average of the last five national nonpartisan polls of registered or potential voters on a preference for universal suffrage within private constituencies that meet CNN criteria. The polling survey includes the results of the NPR/Marist poll conducted September 27-29, the CNN poll conducted September 3–October 5, the CBS News/YouGov poll conducted October 12-14, and the Fox News conducted October 9-12. The New York Times/Siena College poll took place October 9-12.