Welcome to the Daily NHL Betting Market Report, your source for a comprehensive and dynamic analysis of hockey betting. Follow me on Twitter to stay updated as the NHL hobbles every day.
Market report for Sunday 23 October
a summary: 20 percent of all National Hockey League games this season have seen teams win from a multi-goal deficit, and I was on the wrong side of roughly a quarter of those, but things changed with Saturday’s 3-0 sweep:
First, the Bruins (barely) fought back after going up 3-1 over Minnesota Wild and came away with the overtime win. Then the Penguins completed the comeback 6-3 against the Columbus Blue Jackets after falling two goals behind. And of course, Cypress showed no mercy in their 5-1 win over the Vancouver Canucks after going up 2-0 early in the game.
Wins: 13 losses: 11 Units won: 1.09 units Investment return: 4.6 percent
I keep track of all my plays on Betstamp: a third party bet tracking app. The bets reveal themselves after the games have started. I keep my personal records as well and it may differ slightly from Betstamp due to several factors, but for the most part, it should line up closely.
today: Sunday card is ugly.
All game lines are via DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM Sportsbook, but I’ll occasionally use consensus odds from the VSiN NHL Odds page if it’s a better price and more widely available. All recommended bets will be accompanied by the recommended bet size.
Seattle Kraken (-145) at Chicago Blackhawks (+125)
Former teammates Martin Jones and Alex Stallock will compete head-to-head on Sunday as they guard the net for their respective teams. This game is likely to get a lot of attention from bettors for this reason. However, don’t think that Chicago or Seattle could easily fill the net. Blackhawks and Kraken ranked 30The tenth and 31Street When they attack with equal force and they are in the bottom third of the league in general (all positions) when it comes to scoring goals. The bettors who backed the Kraken in the night may have done just fine depending on the odds. I might place a small bet on the Kraken at -135 or -140, but I’m not sad the streak has moved. Seattle isn’t a bad team, but the goalkeepers are horrible, and Chicago score goals at about the same rate. A typical road team price is about -150.
New York Islands (+175) in the Florida Panthers (-200)
The Islanders were one of the most popular bets on Saturday thanks to the fact that the Tampa Bay Lightning were playing their second game in as many days with reserve Brian Elliott manning the cage. Bookmakers flocked to betting on New York earlier in the day and the odds moved wildly in their direction, but the islanders were never in the game and lost 5-3. Ilya Sorokin was in the crosshairs of the loss, which means Semyon Varlamov will likely be in the crease on Sunday.
Varlamov is a good backup and is capable of being a starting player, in my opinion, but my model expects the Panthers to win this game about 65 percent of the time, even with injury issues. But that doesn’t mean it’s a good bet. Converting 65 percent to US odds will give you -185 and that means there is no value to bet on any of these spreads at the current market price.
Columbus Blue Jackets (+240) at New York Rangers (-280)
New York was as high as -275 by some operators, including those known to accept big bets from sharp bookmakers, while others were sitting at around -220 or -225 long after the initial moves. However, this is no longer the case, as retail books have to catch up eventually. And besides, I don’t think it would be right for me to correct about picking bad lines in retail sports betting. Doing this regularly will put limits on your account, or worse. Good rates weren’t widely available this morning, so it wasn’t fair for me to suggest betting on Rangers and count them on my record at a price that not everyone had a chance to get. My model estimates that Rangers are now priced in a more favorable range and there is no longer any value in betting on them to win this game, although they will probably do so easily.
Anaheim Ducks (+125) at Detroit Red Wings (-145)
Trying to defend either of these two teams would be polishing turd. Red wings often smell bad because two of their best players, Jacob Frana and Tyler Bertozzi, are injured, while the duck smells bad because they are flaccid and inexperienced. There are several ways coaches can choose to play this, as far as who will start in goal for each team, and this makes it difficult to pinpoint a streak in this game. However, I’m pretty sure I wouldn’t bet on either of these two teams unless there is a significant shift in the odds.
San Jose Sharks (+110) at Philadelphia Flyers (-130)
In the past 15 years, no team has scored fewer goals (per 60 minutes than the 2013-14 Buffalo Sabers. I tell you this because it helps explain how badly the San Jose Sharks did in 2022-23:
Goals in 60 minutes
2022-23 San Jose Sharks
2013-14 Buffalo Sabers
San Jose currently has the worst shooting percentage in the league, and while I don’t expect them to be as bad as the Sabers a decade ago, I also don’t expect them to make much improvement. Philadelphia got off to a surprisingly hot start, but goalkeeper Carter Hart is the biggest reason for that, playing on Saturday in Nashville. Head coach John Tortorella will likely give approval to support Felix Sandstrom on Sunday, which is why the market has moved towards San Jose. Sandstrom allowed four goals on 36 shots in his first and only start, which was also the second half of a straight game for the Flyers, but it was against the Florida Panthers, a much stronger team than San Jose to say the least. .
Tortorella has already stated that starting Hart in the second half of a back-to-back game isn’t the right thing to do so early in the season, and although the Pilots have three days off after this game, they’ve played four games against four of the top teams in the league (Florida, Carolina, New York, and Toronto) is coming and this is the best place for Sandstrom to get some cast. I’m not willing to bet on a hunch, though, when we’re talking about a bad team like the Sharks, who are also playing tired after losing another game. James Reimer would certainly start with San Jose, which would give them an advantage in goalkeeping management, but despite the Flares injury, these two teams appear to be on par. No bet.
2021-22 betting season summary:
NHL (futures) betting guide: plus 25.9 units
Reg Season (Aspects and Totals): Plus 6.22 units
Player props: minus 15.33 units
Qualifiers (Aspects and Totals): minus 14.43 units
ideas: I tried to do a lot of work last season (The Propagator is one example) because it was my first time producing content on a large scale. I was worried that the usual betting habits would be seen as being too selective and therefore not enough for the average VSiN subscriber. I was wrong.
To go ahead: I’m back to focus on what worked for me all along: making long-term forecasts for the futures markets and holding back all 1,312 regular season games.