The NASCAR Truck Series season has come to an end. Eight drivers are still in the hunt for the title: Chandler Smith, Zane Smith, Ben Rhodes, Christian Ekes, Stuart Friesen, John Hunter Nemeczyk, Ty Majeske and Grant Infinger.
The last time in Talladega, Matt Debenedetto drove to victory, which meant that only one driver, Ty Majeske, had won the fourth championship, winning in Bristol in the opening race of the eighth round. Join him in Phoenix in November?
Here at RotoBaller, we want to help you make informed decisions about your DFS kits, which is why I’m going to break down the lists for your truck series. Let’s take a look at some NASCAR Truck Series DFS lineup selected to Baptist Health 200 on DraftKings. Make sure you also check out Premium NASCAR Tools For truck series including DFS lineup optimizer and powerful search station. This slate is locked 10/22/2022 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
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John Hunter Nemechek ($11,300) – starting from 13
The qualifiers went through, so because Nemechek only finished 24th in Talladega last week, the formula used to determine the lineup puts him 13th on the grid. The average starting position this season is 7.6.
When we do DFS we have to find some small edges, and this could be one of those. If qualifying had taken place, Nemechek would likely have started far and would have had a smaller upward spread in place. Because it rains, we put it where it can be really good.
Nemechek doesn’t have a recent track record here in trucks, since the series wasn’t here last season, but he does have two top 10 trucks in four trucks starting here in NEMCO Equipment, as well as two top 10 trucks here in the Xfinity series. Basically, it was a good track for him, and he could break through and get his first win at Homestead this weekend.
Corey Heim ($10,000) – Starting at 19
Heim is probably the chalk play here. You have a KBM Toyota driven by someone who has already won twice this season and starts in 19th place? Really good amount of high PD here.
And that’s… really all I can say about Heim. I’ve looked up the Racing Reference and can’t find any evidence that Heim has been at this track before, so there are some obvious risks there, but he has coped well with the Truck Series this season, with eight of the top 10 in 14 starts. You should get some exposure to Heim because of this starting point.
Ben Rhodes ($9,500) – starting in second place
Rhodes starts alongside Ryan Price in the front row, which gives him a good chance to get out front and drive some laps early and maybe get the monkey off his back here.
The last sentence refers to what has been a disappointing history for Rhodes here. His best result in five games in the Truck Series is tenth. He drove 43 laps in 2017, but only finished 19th. His average finish in the truck series here is 15.7, which is worse than the launch ever except for three other tracks.
Rhodes is certainly a paradoxical game. You don’t look at his track history and think he’s going to win this one. But since I’m recommending JHN and Corey Heim, this means that some of the most obvious candidates to win are out of our price range, which is why we’re focusing on Rhodes, who has shown some potential here before.
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Max Gutierrez ($7,500) – starting at 31
Because the qualifiers were rainy, there are some differential plays that I really like – guys that I bet they would have qualified better than they did at the beginning if we had already got the qualification.
Gutierrez is in the 22nd truck this week in what will be his fourth start of the season and his third in that truck. In the previous two starts at 22, Gutierrez was 8th in Nashville and 21st in Pocono.
At that price, 21 would be a decent day for the imagination, potentially putting him eighth in the winning line-up. I kind of doubt this truck would end up that far if qualifying happened, so thanks, Rain!
Stefan Parsons ($6000) – from 29
Parsons is in the #20 truck at Youngs Motorsports this week, the second time he’s driven for this team this season. In the first, he started in 25th and finished in 22nd.
Looking at Parsons at the macro level, he’s just an insanely difficult driver to get a read of. He’s done a lot of races for some really bad teams, which skews his numbers. The question is how to do in better equipment. I would say this truck is definitely better than the BJ McLeod he’s driven for most of the year at Xfinity and is more in line with the Alpha Prime Racing he’s been in recently in that series. In that car, Parsons has six of the 20 best finishes in 10 starts.
At $6000, Parsons is someone you can take a low-cost flyer and hope they can get this truck into the top 20.
Tyler Hill ($5,700) – starting at number 36
It’s hard for me not to like Tyler Hill as a gambling option when this week starts. He’s started five times this season, with three of them finishing in the top 25, so there’s a very good chance that if he can keep the truck clean, he’ll get 10 points on Saturday.
Add to that the fact that Hill has been solid here at Homestead. In 2019, it ranked 23rd, and then in 2020 it ranked 25th. That’s a boring play in the sense that there’s really no world in which Hill would compete for 15th or anything, but its price tag allows you to make some of the easier decisions elsewhere. Playing head-on is good here.
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