The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Homestead on Sunday for the second race of Round 8. Last week in Vegas, Joey Logano won his way to Championship 4. Now, seven more drivers will race to join him there. Will the driver of the match win, or will we see a driver win other than a playoff, which was a common feature in these playoffs.
Ross Chastain, Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin, William Byron, Chase Briscoe, Ryan Blaney and Christopher Bell are still alive in the battle to join Lugano in Phoenix.
Below are files NASCAR DFS Lineup Selects for DraftKings and FanDuel this week. This slate is locked 10/23/22 2:30 PM ET. If you have any questions or want to talk about NASCAR, you can find me on Twitter at Tweet embed.
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Fourteenth starts – DraftKings $10,600 | FanDuel $13,500
Always consider Denny Hamlin a win threat when the Cup Series is at Homestead, as he has racked up three wins here during his career.
The last win came in 2020, when Hamlin started first and drove 137 laps here. And while this pole came via the NASCAR qualifying formula rather than from his performance on the track, this was the fourth consecutive time he had made his Homestead debut. That pushed it to five in a row last year. Hamlin’s qualifying speed didn’t always translate to big ends, but it’s worth noting that he knows how to be fast here.
In fact, his 14th place starting point on Sunday is the lowest he has started at Homestead since 2012, when he started in 41st. And while two of his three wins came here with Hamlin starting in the top five, his 2009 win came after he had… He started in 38th, so Hamlin has shown he can navigate through the traffic here.
First starts – DraftKings $9,200 | FanDuel $12,000
Byron picked up right where he left off the last time the Cup series was at Homestead, qualifying on pole for Sunday’s race.
When the Cup Series was here last February, Byron led 102 from 267 laps, coming from 31st place to win the race. It was a dominating show despite the fact that he had to move from the depths of the field.
With Byron starting up front, he’ll have an easier time driving the laps at this point. There’s always some extra risk in playing a polesitter because he can’t win differential points and can only lose them, but his recent history here makes him intriguing to be missed. I was expecting Byron or Christopher Bell to set the pace in the first stage.
XIX starts – $3,500 for DraftKings | FanDuel $8,500
Briscoe had a weird season winning in Phoenix, then went eight races after that with only one in the top 10. But when it matters, with the accessory on the line, Briscoe picked things up.
This 14th car has four of the top 10 cars in a row, including last week’s fourth place in the opening race of this playoff. He drove six laps.
With Briscoe starting 19th this week, there is some good differential climb in place if he can continue in the top ten series. Given that he is the only driver left from Stuart Haas, I imagine the team will continue to put him in the best position for any of their four drivers to succeed.
Briscoe finished 18th here last year, but it is noticeable that he started in 30th that year, so he ended up with a fantastically strong day due to the difference in venue. He’s also won here at Xfinity.
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Starts 26 – DraftKings $7,700 | FanDuel $7,500
It wasn’t a great qualifying effort from Team Penske, with Ryan Blaney starting 13th, Joey Logano 17th and Cendrick 26th. But that leaves this car 2 with some really good place differential upside heading into Sunday’s race.
Cindric has never raced here in the Truck Series, but he has a lot of experience here in other series. He made five Xfinity Series starts here, driving double-digit laps in four of those races and scoring top 10 results in each race, with the best finish per second. And in the Truck Series, Cendrick ran here once, finishing fifth in 2017.
This season, Cindric has hit a bit of a tricky point, with consecutive finishes outside the top 20, but has an average finish of 16.0 with nine in the top 10.
32nd starts – DraftKings $7,200 | FanDuel $5,300
That FanDuel’s salary is too low, isn’t it? The Dillon’s price tag is under five drivers that beats them when it comes to the price of the DraftKings, and it’s just $300 more than Ricky Stenhour Jr. and Harrison Burton.
This was one of Dillon’s best tracks in the Cup series, with a start average of 18.0 and a finish average of 12.5. The average finish is better than at any track except for COTA (but he only ran there twice) and Darlington (12.3).
Dillon had seven of his top 15 games in a row here and never finished on the first lap. With the third car starting in thirty-second position, there is quite a bit of a place differential for this car.
28th Starts – DraftKings $6700 | FanDuel $6500
Almirola is pretty cheap for a Stewart Haas driver, especially if he has a lot of differential in place, since he started in 28th. Hey this season, Almirola’s average finish is 17.7.
He’s done relatively well at Homestead over the course of his Cup series career, with four top-10 finishes and an average finish of 20.5, although he’s been kind of a rollercoaster here. Since joining SHR in 2018, his Homestead endings are: 9th, 22nd, 5th, 30th.
Almerola is a bit boring, but there is a very clear path to value here.
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